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☆ Bank of England rate has peaked, to stay at 5.25% through Q2
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, Oct 24 (Reuters) - The Bank of England is likely done with policy tightening and will leave Bank Rate at 5.25% on Nov. 2, according to the vast majority of economists polled by Reuters who did however caution the chance of another increase this year was high. Only 12 economists forecast a quarter point rise to 5.50% at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Inflation was expected to gradually decline across the forecast horizon but it won't reach target until Q2 2025, the poll showed. Around one-third of economists expected the Bank to act earlier. The BoE was forecast to reduce Bank Rate by 50 basis points in the fourth quarter, putting it at 4.50% by year-end.

Persons: James Smith, Elizabeth Martins, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, BoE, ING's Smith, Jonathan Cable, Prerana Bhat, Sujith Pai, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, Bank, ING, MPC, HSBC, United States Federal Reserve, European, Thomson

Silicon Valley is bracing for what it fears will be an "extinction event" threatening the survival of hundreds of startups. Tom Loverro, a investor at 40-year-old Bay Area venture capital firm IVP, has been loudly warning for months on Twitter and in media interviews about a coming "mass extinction event" for startups. The total volume of venture capital investment into US startups has slumped for six consecutive quarters, according to data firm Pitchbook. Even a last-ditch slashing of the startup's prospective valuation — a "down-round," in Silicon Valley parlance — didn't whet investors' appetites. Over the past year, many startups that rely on Silicon Valley funding have been steeling themselves for the slowdown to avoid similar fates.

Persons: —, they're, Jennifer Neundorfer, That's, Tom Loverro, Loverro, Consuelo Vanderbilt, Vanderbilt, Cameron Lester, I've, Lester, Linda Ahrens, Ahrens, Unown, " Ahrens, Anna Dittrich, Plastiq, Vincent Harrison, Elad Gil, Steve Brotman, Brotman, Will Hawthorne, VC's, Mike Ryan, Pitchbook's Harrison, Sell, Hawthorne Organizations: Ventures, Sequoia Capital, —, Venture, Twitter, United States Federal Reserve, Jefferies, January Ventures, Alpha Partners, Avid Capital, Sugar, Menlo, BulletPoint Network Locations: Silicon, Sequoia, IVP, Valley, Instacart, Navan, Boston, Snowflake, America

☆ Oil prices open lower on modest Chinese growth forecast
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Sudarshan Varadhan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

March 6 (Reuters) - Oil prices opened lower on Monday after China set a modest target for economic growth this year of around 5%, lower than market expectations of 5.5% growth in the world's second- largest oil consumer. China's closely watched growth outlook was down from last year's target of 5.5% and came in at the low end of expectations. At the same time, oil prices are likely to be impacted by rate hikes across the world as global central banks tighten policy over fears of increasing inflation. Traders have started factoring in rate hikes across the world, but are hoping for smaller increases than last year. The United States' future rate hikes are also likely to depend on what the February payrolls report reveals on Friday, followed by the February inflation report due next week.

☆ Bank of England to lift rates to 4% on Feb 2, finish at 4.25% in March - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationLONDON, Jan 24 (Reuters) - The Bank of England will lift the Bank Rate by 50 basis points on Feb. 2 to 4.00% and then add another 25 basis points in March before pausing, according to a Reuters poll of economists who said the greater risk was that it would do even more. A firm majority, 29 of 42 respondents to the Jan. 18-24 poll, said the Bank would add 50 basis points next Thursday. Median forecasts in the poll showed the Bank would then add 25 basis points in March, giving a peak rate of 4.25%. Markets are pricing in a peak of 4.50% for Bank Rate. However, the poll showed GDP falling 0.3% this quarter and next and 0.1% in the third quarter.

Jan 10 (Reuters) - Oil edged lower on Tuesday on expectations that further interest rate hikes in the United States, the world's biggest oil user, will slow economic growth and limit fuel demand. Brent futures for March delivery fell 43 cents to $79.22 a barrel, a 0.5% drop, by 0522 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 36 cents, or 0.5%, to $74.27 per barrel. But analysts warned that China's demand revival may play limited role to drive up oil prices under the global economic downward pressure. Separately, U.S. crude oil stockpiles likely fell 2.4 million barrels, with distillate inventories also seen slightly down, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday.

☆ Bank of England to raise Bank Rate by 50 bps in Dec, peak at 4.25% in Q1: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

After adding 75 basis points to Bank Rate earlier this month the Monetary Policy Committee will add a more modest 50 basis points on Dec. 15, taking it to 3.50%, the Nov. 18-22 poll found. In an October poll, the rate was expected to end this year at 3.75%. Over 75% of respondents, 43 of 56, opted for 50 basis points while 13 said 75. Reuters Poll - Bank of England monetary policy outlook for DecemberAt the Nov. 3 meeting Governor Andrew Bailey told investors, who were pricing in a peak around 4.70%, their rate hike bets looked too big. The United States Federal Reserve has made four consecutive 75 basis point increases but was expected to shift down the pace to a 50 basis point move next month.

☆ Euro zone downturn deepens, points to winter recession
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A closely-watched survey showed euro zone October business activity contracted at the fastest pace since late 2020. "The final euro zone PMIs for October paint a clear picture of falling activity and sky-high inflation," said Jack Allen-Reynolds at Capital Economics. Asked what type of recession the euro zone would endure, 22 of 46 respondents in an October Reuters poll said it would be short and shallow while 15 said it would be long and shallow. In the euro zone, high operating expenses due to energy, wage and transport costs pushed services firms to raise charges sharply again. With no end in sight to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, nearly 65% of 34 respondents in the October Reuters poll said the cost of living in the euro zone would worsen or worsen significantly.

☆ ECB to go big again on Oct. 27 with 75 bps rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Reuters Poll - Euro zone economic outlookIn the run-up to winter, forecasters are expecting the ECB to be more aggressive in tightening policy. The bloc's central bank will take the deposit rate to 1.50% and the refinancing rate to 2.00% next Thursday, a view held by an overwhelming majority of respondents in the Oct. 12-18 Reuters poll of more than 60 economists. Three-quarters of respondents to an additional question, 27 of 36, said the bank ought to choose a 75 basis point lift to the deposit rate while two said it should go harder with a 100 basis point increase. Reuters Poll - ECB monetary policy outlookSHORT AND SHALLOW? The deposit rate was expected to reach a peak of 2.50% next year and the refinancing rate 3.00%, higher than the 1.50% and 2.00% highs given in September.

☆ ECB to go big again on Oct. 27 with 75 bps rate hike: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

☆ Inflation is a global problem. Here's how central banks are addressing it
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | Cnn Business | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

In Turkey and Argentina, annual inflation rates are forecast to clock in at a whopping 80%. At least 75 have lifted their benchmark interest rates in the past year, increasing the price of credit across the world. In July, it instituted its second consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increase, taking its benchmark rate to a range of 2.25% to 2.5%. The country is struggling with rampant inflation rate that rose to a 20-year high of nearly 80% in August. The country's annual inflation rate slowed to 7% in August, below analyst forecasts of 7.3% and down from 7.6% in July.

☆ Inflation is a global problem. Here’s how central banks are addressing it
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

In Turkey and Argentina, annual inflation rates are forecast to clock in at a whopping 80%. At least 75 have lifted their benchmark interest rates in the past year, increasing the price of credit across the world. In July, it instituted its second consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increase, taking its benchmark rate to a range of 2.25% to 2.5%. The country is struggling with rampant inflation rate that rose to a 20-year high of nearly 80% in August. The country’s annual inflation rate slowed to 7% in August, below analyst forecasts of 7.3% and down from 7.6% in July.

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